On March 12, 2025, the hijacking of the Jaffar Express train in Pakistan’s volatile Balochistan province by the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) sent shockwaves through the region.
Amidst this escalating crisis, China swiftly condemned the attack and extended an offer to bolster security cooperation with Pakistan. This move underscores Beijing’s deepening concerns over the safety of its multi-billion-dollar investments, particularly the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project of its Belt and Road Initiative.
The Jaffar Express, carrying over 400 passengers from Quetta to Peshawar, was ambushed on Tuesday in a remote mountainous tunnel in Balochistan’s Bolan district. Armed militants from the BLA, a separatist group seeking greater autonomy for the resource-rich yet underdeveloped province, detonated explosives to derail the train before storming it with rockets, grenades, and gunfire. The attack left at least 11 dead initially, with the BLA claiming to have taken more than 200 hostages, including security personnel, whom they accuse of perpetrating “state terrorism” against the Baloch people. By Wednesday morning, Pakistani forces had rescued 190 passengers and killed 30 militants, though the fate of dozens of hostages remained uncertain as operations continued in the rugged terrain.
The BLA’s audacious move marks a significant escalation in its decades-long insurgency. The group issued a 24-hour ultimatum to Pakistan, demanding the release of imprisoned Baloch fighters in exchange for the hostages’ lives, threatening to try them in a “Baloch National Court” if unmet. Pakistani officials, however, showed no inclination to negotiate, with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif vowing to repel the attackers and Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi labeling them “beasts” for targeting civilians. The standoff has intensified an already precarious security situation in Balochistan, a province long neglected by Islamabad despite its strategic importance.
China’s Swift Response: More Than Just Condolences
Within hours of the hijacking, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Mao Ning, issued a strongly worded statement condemning the attack and reaffirming Beijing’s opposition to terrorism in all forms. “We noted the reports and strongly condemn this terrorist attack,” Mao said during a media briefing. “China stands ready to strengthen counterterrorism and security cooperation with Pakistan and jointly keep the region peaceful, secure, and stable.” This was not merely diplomatic rhetoric—China’s offer signals a proactive stance to safeguard its interests in Pakistan, where instability threatens to derail one of its most ambitious geopolitical projects.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, valued at over $60 billion, is a sprawling network of infrastructure projects linking China’s Xinjiang region to Pakistan’s Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea. It includes roads, railways, energy plants, and industrial zones, designed to enhance trade and cement China’s influence in South Asia. However, Balochistan, home to much of CPEC’s infrastructure, has become a volatile flashpoint. The BLA and other insurgent groups view these projects as exploitative, accusing both Islamabad and Beijing of plundering the province’s natural resources—oil, gas, and minerals—while leaving local communities impoverished. This resentment has fueled a surge in attacks targeting Pakistani security forces, civilians, and Chinese nationals working on CPEC initiatives.
What’s at Stake for Beijing?
For China, the stakes could not be higher. The train hijacking is the latest in a string of assaults that have rattled its confidence in Pakistan’s ability to secure CPEC. In recent years, Chinese workers have been repeatedly targeted—most notably in a November 2024 suicide bombing at Quetta’s railway station that killed 26, including Chinese engineers, and an October 2024 attack where BLA gunmen murdered 20 miners. These incidents have heightened Beijing’s apprehensions about the safety of the hundreds of Chinese personnel stationed in Pakistan, as well as the long-term viability of its investments.
CPEC is more than an economic venture; it’s a cornerstone of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a global infrastructure plan aimed at expanding Beijing’s economic and political reach. A secure Pakistan is critical to ensuring the corridor’s success, providing China with a vital trade route to the Middle East and beyond, bypassing the congested Malacca Strait. Any disruption—whether through insurgent attacks or political instability—threatens not only billions in sunk costs but also China’s strategic ambitions. Analysts estimate that CPEC’s failure could dent Beijing’s credibility as a global power, emboldening critics of the Belt and Road who argue it overextends China’s resources and exposes it to regional conflicts.
Moreover, the human cost weighs heavily. The safety of Chinese nationals has become a diplomatic pressure point, with Beijing repeatedly urging Islamabad to crack down on militancy. The train hijacking, described by security analyst Zahid Hussain as “unprecedented,” amplifies these concerns. If Pakistan cannot guarantee security, China may face the unpalatable choice of scaling back its involvement or deploying its own forces—a move that could inflame local tensions and draw Beijing deeper into a quagmire it has so far avoided.
The Balochistan Conundrum
Balochistan’s unrest is rooted in decades of grievances. Despite being Pakistan’s largest province by area and rich in resources, it remains the country’s poorest, with dismal literacy rates, widespread unemployment, and crumbling infrastructure. The Baloch people, an ethnic minority, accuse the central government of systemic discrimination and exploitation, a narrative the BLA has weaponized to rally support. The group, estimated to have around 3,000 fighters, has grown bolder, leveraging advanced weaponry and tactics—possibly funded by external actors, though evidence remains murky—to challenge Pakistani authority.
The hijacking of the Jaffar Express is a stark demonstration of this escalating insurgency. Unlike previous attacks on isolated targets, this operation involved coordinated planning, heavy firepower, and a willingness to hold hundreds hostage, signaling the BLA’s intent to inflict maximum disruption. Security experts suggest the group aims to draw international attention to its cause while pressuring Islamabad into concessions. However, the civilian casualties—50 hostages reportedly executed by Wednesday, per BLA claims—may backfire, alienating the very population it claims to represent, as noted by analyst Syed Muhammad Ali.
Why China’s Response Matters
China’s pledge to assist Pakistan in fortifying rail security is not merely a goodwill gesture but a strategic imperative. The CPEC, a $62 billion flagship BRI project, aims to link China’s Xinjiang province to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port through a network of roads, railways, and pipelines. However, the corridor traverses Balochistan, a region plagued by insurgency, where separatist groups like the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) routinely target infrastructure and Chinese personnel. In 2021, a suicide bombing in Dasu killed 13, including nine Chinese engineers, stalling projects and straining bilateral ties.
For Beijing, the hijacking episode is a stark reminder of the persistent threats shadowing its overseas ambitions. Over 2,000 Chinese workers are employed in CPEC-related projects, and any attack risks not only lives but also the profitability of investments crucial to China’s energy security and trade diversification. Pakistan’s railways, which transport goods from Gwadar to inland China, are particularly vital; disruptions could delay shipments, inflate costs, and erode confidence in the BRI’s viability.
Balancing Security and Diplomacy
China’s assistance is expected to include advanced surveillance technology, increased personnel training, and intelligence-sharing mechanisms. Earlier collaborations under CPEC’s security framework have already seen the raising of a 15,000-strong military division dedicated to protecting Chinese assets. However, critics argue such measures risk inflaming local tensions. Baloch separatists, who oppose CPEC as exploitative of the region’s resources, view Chinese presence as an extension of state-backed “colonization.”
“China’s security-centric approach may address immediate threats but won’t resolve underlying grievances driving militancy,” says Ayesha Siddiqa, a South Asia analyst at King’s College London. “Without addressing Baloch political demands, the cycle of violence will persist.” Meanwhile, Islamabad faces mounting pressure to demonstrate its ability to shield foreign investments. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s administration, grappling with economic crises, can ill afford further project delays or diplomatic friction with Beijing.
China’s Next Move: A Balancing Act
China’s pledge to enhance security cooperation is a pragmatic response, but it raises complex questions. What form will this assistance take? Beijing could offer intelligence-sharing, advanced surveillance technology, or training for Pakistani forces—measures it has employed elsewhere in its Belt and Road partnerships. There’s also the possibility of increased funding for counterterrorism operations, though Pakistan’s fragile economy, already reliant on Chinese loans, may struggle to sustain such efforts independently.
Direct military involvement, however, seems unlikely. China has historically avoided boots-on-the-ground commitments abroad, preferring to project power through economic leverage. Deploying troops to Balochistan could provoke a nationalist backlash in Pakistan and further radicalize the BLA, which has already singled out Chinese workers as symbols of “neo-colonialism.” Instead, Beijing is likely to double down on pressuring Islamabad to deliver results, possibly tying future CPEC investments to tangible security improvements.
A Regional Ripple Effect
The hijacking’s fallout extends beyond China and Pakistan. Balochistan’s proximity to Afghanistan and Iran makes it a geopolitical tinderbox. The BLA’s tactics echo those of other regional militants, raising fears of cross-border collaboration—though no concrete links have been proven. For India, Pakistan’s arch-rival and a skeptic of CPEC, the chaos offers a chance to highlight Islamabad’s vulnerabilities, potentially complicating China’s regional calculus.
Meanwhile, the United States, which designates the BLA as a terrorist organization, watches closely. Washington’s frosty relations with Pakistan and its strategic competition with China could shape its response, whether through quiet support for counterterrorism or a hands-off approach to let Beijing grapple with the mess.
As rescue operations grind on and the BLA’s ultimatum looms, the Jaffar Express hijacking has thrust China’s stakes in Pakistan into sharp relief. Beijing’s offer of help is a lifeline to its embattled ally, but it’s also a calculated bid to protect a grand vision imperiled by local fury. For now, the world watches a tense standoff unfold—one where the cost of failure could reshape alliances, economies, and a province’s future. In Balochistan’s rugged hills, the echoes of gunfire signal a battle not just for hostages, but for the soul of a region caught in the crosshairs of ambition and resistance.
